My Picks for the 2016 Academy Awards

            We’re here.  Thank the Lord, at long last we’re here.  All the other major awards, committees, and guilds have had their say, and that last bloated prestige ceremony, the Oscars, is almost upon us, after which 2015 will officially and forever be yesterday’s news. 

            Not that this year’s ceremony will take place without the customary controversy hanging over its head, and this year the debate has been particularly contentious.  For the second straight year, every single acting nomination slot has gone to a white actor or actress, and the Directing slot breaks up the homogeneity with a lone repeat nomination for Alejandro Inarritu.  Nothing for Tangerine or Chi-Raq (and the expected nomination for Idris Elba in Beasts of no Nation never materialized), and the only nominations for the otherwise very well-received Creed and Straight Outta Compton went to prominent white people involved. 

            This immediately prompted a resurrection of last year’s equally-merited hashtag #OscarsSoWhite, but this time things went even further when a host of prominent black film figures (including Spike Lee and Will Smith) announced they would boycott this year’s ceremony as a result.  This, in turn, prompted a surprisingly open announcement by the Academy President Cheryl Boone Isaacs that she would push for substantial change in Academy membership, including seeking to double the number of minorities among the voting ranks over the next few years, and even floated the idea of culling voting roles of anyone who hasn’t been active in the film industry for at least a decade. 

            And in turn, this (unsurprisingly) led to the typical tone-deaf backlash against the backlash, with older members claiming ageism and many publicly decrying such moves like these as effort to paint anyone old and white with the brush of racism- “I’m not racist!  I voted to give Sidney Poitier his Oscar all those decades ago!  I CAN’T be racist!” 

            Which, as always, completely misses the point of why this is a problem, why people are upset about it, and why the measures announced by Isaacs are an essential (if only an initial and incomplete) step towards fixing yet another part of American society that blindly perpetuates racial divides without even realizing. 

            To start off, no one is implicating any one individual or group of people as being explicitly, overtly racist.  To claim otherwise is to stonewall real discussion and create a strawman argument the ignorant can use to perpetuate their ignorance and avoid having to think too hard about what is, and I grant this without reservation, a very complicated, messy, and unpleasant topic to have to tackle.  And at any rate, individual or overt acts of racism are not the problem- it’s the structure of an entire industry that mirrors the various inequalities and white-skewing perspectives that nearly every other major American institution was built on. 

            Acknowledging that the current situation is what it is and that it needs to change, and that we all might have been contributing to the problem up to now without even realizing it, doesn’t make all of us awful people.  It doesn’t make us “racists” (at least not in the sense most people mean).  It does mean that we all need to think about why it is that an overwhelmingly old, white, male elite buddy club only seems to find traditionalist movies about white people doing great stuff worthy of getting “Best of the Year” labels, how we got here, and what needs to change in order for the organizations that take it upon themselves to celebrate the best of the best by handing out awards (and yes, award recognition DOES play a HUGE role in what sorts of projects get studio funding and what doesn’t).  We need to be honest, and we need to work really, really hard to make things better.  In the end, I don’t think that’s asking too much. 

            Alright, and now that we have the heady stuff out of the way, I have a confession I really should make- I personally was somewhat relieved by this year’s group of nominees.  Yes, the whiteness of the main categories is deplorable, but again, this problem is a longstanding structural one and it would have been foolish to expect that an Academy capable of denying Selma its due would come around and be charmed enough by a Tangerine or a Chi-Raq to offer it the time of day.  So I am disappointed, certainly, but hardly surprised. 

            What pleased me was that, although there were snubs aplenty this year, it is finally NOT the case that the snubbery can be tied to one particularly bad movie eating up a huge number of nomination slots.  Each of the last three years featured at least one completely average and/or downright bad movie (particularly American Sniper, American Hustle, and Silver Linings Playbook, in reverse order) sucking in huge numbers of nominations, and denying precious ballot space for far better films (I challenge anyone to argue that Bradley Cooper’s awful Texan drawl in Sniper was actually more memorable that Oyelowo’s breathtaking turn as Dr. King in Selma).  Sure, mediocrities like Joy and Fifty Shades snuck in with a nom apiece, but that always happens.  At least the multiple award-works are the sort of films that deserve to be there, even if they aren’t nearly represented enough of a world where over 500 new movies come out every year.  So I choose to be grateful for the little things in life. 

            As always, because I am loathe to try and predict how Academy voters think, the following are not my predictions of who win what.  These are the movies and people that I personally feel deserve to win out of the nominated field.  I look forward to being completely wrong come February 28.  Let us begin. 

Writing: Original Screenplay

Bridge of Spies- Matt Charman, Joel and Ethan Coen

Ex Machina- Alex Garland

Inside Out- Pete Doctor, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley

Spotlight- Josh Singer, Tom McCarthy

Straight Outta Compton- Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff

Winner: Ex Machina

            Oof.  Right off the bat, this is an insanely hard one to pick, because all of these were great movies.  That said, I am giving this one to Ex Machina, since it was one of the thematically heaviest films nominated.  Inside Out certainly rivaled it in terms of the screenplay’s brilliant depth, but that movie is already a lock for another pick on this list, and I like to spread the love on my ballet around as much as I can.  

Writing Adapted Screenplay:

The Big Short- Adam McKay, Charles Randolph

Brooklyn- Nick Hornby

Carol- Phyllis Nagy

Room- Emma Donoghue

The Martian- Drew Goddard

Winner: Brooklyn

            Again, this is a remarkably good lineup, with no real bad pick.  However, I did just praise Brooklyn as my favorite book adaptation of the year, so I will stick to my guns here and pencil it in for this one.  If I had to pick a second choice (and one more likely to actually win), I would go with The Big Short. 

Visual Effects:

Ex Machina- Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Ardington, Sara Bennett

The Martian- Richard Stammers, Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence, Steven Warner

Mad Max: Fury Road- Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver, Andy Williams

The Revenant- Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith, Cameron Waldbauer

Star Wars: The Force Awakens- Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, Chris Corbould

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

            And once again, all the films here are worthy picks.  However, no movie struck me as quite so visually fascinating and unique (and colorful!) as Mad Max.  While its liberal use of practical effects and minimal CGI additions are laudable, what makes it stand out is not just that they did it, but that both were perfectly balanced in service of making a film that looked new and different, that really gave us a different world we could sink into. 

Sound Mixing:

Bridge of Spies- Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Drew Kunin

The Revenant- Jon Taylor, Frank Montano, Randy Thom, Chris Duesterdiek

Mad Max: Fury Road- Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff, Ben Osmo

Star Wars: The Force Awakens- Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Stuart Wilson

The Martian- Paul Massey Mark Taylor, Mac Ruth

Winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

            It’s amazing to see a Star Wars film back and getting several awards nominations, so I think it should get at least one of the big technical awards.  Here’s hoping that the next films keep expanding the narrative, so that down the line we can get a Best Picture nomination, and (fingers crossed!) an acting nomination for Daisy Ridley (please?). 

Sound Editing

Mad Max: Fury Road- Mark Mangini and David White

The Martian- Oliver Tarney

Sicario- Alan Robert Murray

The Revenant- Martin Hernandez and Lon Bender

Star Wars: The Force Awakens- Matthew Wood and David Acord

Winner: The Martian

            Much of what made The Martian so much fun was its liberal use of classic disco jams (much to Matt Damon’s dismay), and their coming and going was a great bit of work on the part of Ridley Scott’s team. 

Short Film (Live Action):

Ave Maria- Basil Khalil and Eric Dupont

Day One- Henry Hughes

Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)- Patrick Vollrath

Stutterer- Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage

Shok- Jamie Donoughue

Winner: N/A

            Unfortunately, as is the case every year, there are virtually no ways outside of the film festival circuit to see the sort of movies that end up being picked for this, so I am not in a position to pick a winner. 

Short Film (Animated):

Bear Story- Gabriel Osorio and Pato Escala

We Can’t Live Without The Cosmos- Konstantin Bronzit

World of Tomorrow- Don Hertzfeldt

Prologue- Richard Williams and Imogen Sutton

Sanjay’s Super Team- Sanjay Patel and Nicole Grindle

Winner: N/A

            See above. 

Production Design:

Bridge of Spies- Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo, Bernhard Henrich

The Danish Girl- Eve Stewart, Michael Standish

Mad Max: Fury Road- Colin Gibson, Lisa Thompson

The Martian- Arthur Max, Celia Boback

The Revenant- Jack Fisk and Hamish Purdy

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

            For my money, while this is as solid a selection as most of the other categories this year, there’s no competition as to which film most deserves the prize.  The level of detail that went into designing every facet of this beautifully bizarre world is as much a marvel to behold as the terribly spectacular splendor of its action. 

Music (Original Song):

“Earned It” (Fifty Shades of Gray)- The Weekend, Ahmad Balshe, Jason Daheala Quenneville

“Writing’s On The Wall” (Spectre) Jimmy Napes, Sam Smith

“Til It Happens To You” (The Hunting Ground)- Dianne Warren, Lady Gaga

“Manta Ray” (Racing Extinction)- J. Ralph, Anohni

“Simple Song #3” (Youth)- David Lang

Winner: “‘Til It Happens To You” (The Hunting Ground)

            God, what a bleak bunch of entries this year.  And….nearly all kind of boring too.  I had more interest in the Lady Gaga song from the start (partially because the subject matter of The Hunting Ground is particularly important), but it also stands out way more than any of the dreary stuff filling out the nominee roles (and I the only one immensely disappointed that the James Bond song wasn’t this?). 

Music (Original Score):

Bridge of Spies- Thomas Newman

Carol- Carter Burwell

Star Wars: The Force Awakens- John Williams

Sicario- Johan Johannsson

The Hateful Eight- Ennio Morricone

Winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

            All due respect to Morricone, who also made my Favorite Scores list, but the power of the Star Wars music is undeniable.  John Williams is more than overdue for another statue. 

Makeup and Hairstyling:

Mad Max: Fury Road- Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardegga, Damian Martin

The Revenant- Sian Grigg, Duncan Jarman, Robert Pandini

The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out The Window and Disappeared- Love Larson, Eva von Bahr

Winner: The Revenant

            This is another agonizingly close choice- Mad Max and The Revenant are both movies that feature some remarkably ugly/dirty/beat-up visages, and utterly believable ones at that, and that’s a trick all in the makeup.  So here, both are worthy picks in my mind.  However, I am already dishing out a lot of other awards to Mad Max, and as I said, I do like to spread the love where I reasonably can. 

Foreign Language Film:

Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)- Ciro Guerra

Son of Saul (Hungary)- Laszlo Nemes

Mustang (France)- Deniz Gamze Ergueven

Theeb (Jordan)- Naji Abu Nawar

A War (Denmark)- Tobias Lindholm

Winner: N/A

            I was fortunate enough to see over 20 non-English language films this year, both in theaters and at film festivals, including some fantastic Japanese works and some genuinely groundbreaking new pieces from the German film industry.  Sadly, none of them fell within the depressingly narrow boundaries the Academy sets up for what movies are allowed to qualify for this award, so none of them are among the nominees list.  Hence, I am not able to pick a winner. 

Film Editing:

The Big Short- Hank Corwin

Spotlight- Tom McArdle

Star Wars: The Force Awakens- Maryanne Brandon, Mary Jo Markey

Mad Max: Fury Road- Margaret Sixel

The Revenant- Stephen Mirrione

Winner: The Big Short

            While Mad Max, Star Wars, and The Revenant all have a worthy claim to the gold here, there was a particular art to how well the hectic cutting and transitioning in The Big Short brought across as much about the world of its subject matter as any of the exposition could.  Also, there are precious few other categories where I can give this film an award, and The Big Short deserves at least one statue. 

Documentary (Short Subject):

Body Team 12- David Darg, Bryn Mooser

Chau, Beyond the Lines- Courtney Marsh, Jerry Franck

Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah- Adam Benzine

Last Day of Freedom- Dee Hibbert-Jones, Nomi Talisman

A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness- Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy

Winner: N/A

            See the other Shorts above. 

Documentary (Feature):

Amy- Asif Kapadia, James Gay-Rees

What Happened, Miss Simone?- Liz Garbus, Amy Hobby, Justin Wilkes

Cartel Land- Matthew Heinemann, Tom Yellin

The Look of Silence- Joshua Oppenheimer,

Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom- Evgeny Afineevsky and Den Tolmor

Winner: Amy

            This one’s pretty straightforward- Amy was my favorite documentary of the year, hence it easily earns the top prize in my book (although if I were in the betting market, I would put my money on Oppenheimer getting the prize, since he was denied last time around for The Act of Killing). 

Directing:

The Big Short- Adam McKay

Mad Max: Fury Road- George Miller

Room- Lenny Abrahamson

Spotlight- Tom McCarthy

The Revenant- Alejandro Inarritu

Winner: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)

            No doubt for me here- there is something remarkably inspiring (much like Scorcese’s inspired work a few years ago on Wolf of Wall Street) in seeing an already long-established director come storming back at an age when most of their peers are enjoying quiet retirement to put fellow artists half their age to shame with work as good as anything they’ve ever produced. 

Costume Design:

Carol- Sandy Powell

Mad Max: Fury Road- Jenny Beavan

The Revenant- Jacqueline West

Cinderella- Sandy Powell

The Danish Girl- Paco Delgado

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

            Sticking with my favorite film of the year on this one as well.  Mad Max all the way. 

Cinematography:

Carol- Ed Lachman

The Revenant- Emmanuel Lubezki

Sicario- Roger Deakins

The Hateful Eight- Robert Richardson

Mad Max: Fury Road- John Seale

Winner: The Revenant 

            Yet another packed category, and one of the hardest picks for me.  I was sorely tempted to go with Mad Max again here, but I am already laying heavy attention on it in other categories.  I thought the opening shot alone for The Hateful Eight was one of the most inventive uses of a camera I’ve ever seen.  But it’s hard to go against Lubezki, even though he won last year as well, and DAMN, The Revenant just looks so good. 

Animated Feature Film:

Anomalisa

Boy & The World

Inside Out

Shaun The Sheep Movie

When Marnie Was There

Winner: Inside Out

            Like with Amy, this is an easy pick.  Inside Out was my favorite animated film of the year, and this year I expect the Academy will actually agree with me. 

Actress in a Supporting Role:

Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)

Rooney Mara (Carol)

Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)

Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Winner: Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)

            I really wish we had more of the cast from The Hateful Eight to pick from in the acting categories this year, but sadly, we don’t, so Jennifer will have to do.  Her treacherous Daisy is just one of the many acting delights this work has to offer, and while she certainly isn’t the only reason to give the film a watch, she sure helps its case. 

Actor in a Supporting Role:

Christian Bale (The Big Short)

Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)

Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

Tom Hardy (The Revenant)

Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)

Winner: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)

            While I am not as high on Bridge of Spies as a lot of awards committees have been, but it is a great piece of classic Cold War thriller-drama from one of the greatest living filmmakers starring one of the greatest living actors, so yeah, I can very well see where the praise comes from.  As much as I adore Tom Hanks though, Mark Rylance’s unruffled, sober, and somewhat grim Soviet spy has left an indelible impression on me.  His quiet, oft-repeated line, “Would it help?” and the meaning the film associates with it has resounded in my head through a few hard personal situations, and that’s the kind of subtle acting craft I feel should be rewarded. 

Actress in a Leading Role:

Cate Blanchett (Carol)

Brie Larson (Room)

Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)

Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)

Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

Winner: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

            Brooklyn was one of the most emotional theater experiences I had all year, and much of that can be attributed to Saoirse’s carefully-crafted performance of a woman coming into her own through sheer force of will.  The performance itself was every bit as much a work of art as the film, and it turned Saoirse into one of my favorite actresses currently working. 

Actor in a Leading Role:

Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)

Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)

Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

Matt Damon (The Martian)

Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)

Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)

            Alright, let’s get this bit of unpleasantness out of the way: The Revenant is by no means one of DiCaprio’s best performances, nor does it rank among the best films he’s attached his name to.  Which means that, since it’s all but inevitable he will finally win one this time around, the Academy is set to continue its long tradition of its acting award picks being either downright mistakes, or apologies for the mistakes, or apologies for past apologies for mistakes; see Jennifer Lawrence winning for the mediocre Silver Linings Playbook as an apology for not winning for the vastly superior Winter’s Bone, which was the year they gave another Oscar to Meryl Streep as an apology for all the better past roles they’d made the mistake of not awarding her for, as just one example of the sort of endless cycle this creates. 

            That said, this is a pretty weak year for male acting nominees in general, especially compared with some of the greatness of the past two years, and DiCaprio’s physical dedication to the role is never less than impressive.  So while I wouldn’t consider DiCaprio’s work to be among the best of the year overall, I did think it was the best out of this particularly narrow selection we have to choose from.  Which at least makes this one more in tune with the spirit of the award than a simple pity selection. 

Best Picture:

The Big Short

Brookyln

Bridge of Spies

The Revenant

The Martian

Room

Mad Max: Fury Road

Spotlight

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

            Surprise surprise, my #1 film of the year is also my pick for Best Picture, and in a just world, I could feel safe calling this a prediction too.  Sadly, while I think the film will pick up a few of the technical awards, I think will end up being way too out there for the Academy to give it the top prize.  If this ends up being the case, I would also be fine with The Big Short, Brooklyn, or The Martian as a second choice.  Just not The Revenant.  Please, not The Revenant. 

            Phew.  Done and done.  That’s it!  My picks for the 2016 Academy Awards.  If you weren’t keeping score at home, here’s my final breakdown-

Mad Max: Fury Road (5)- Visual Effects, Production Design, Directing, Costume Design, Best Picture

The Revenant (3)- Makeup & Hairstyling, Cinematography, Leading Actor

Brooklyn (2)- Adapted Screenplay, Leading Actress

Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2)- Sound Mixing, Original Score

The Big Short (1)- Film Editing

Ex Machina (1)- Original Screenplay

The Martian (1)- Sound Editing

The Hunting Ground (1)- Original Song

Amy (1)- Documentary Feature

Inside Out (1)- Animated Feature

The Hateful Eight (1)- Supporting Actress

Bridge of Spies (1)- Supporting Actor

             Tune in for the Oscars with me (and follow my exhaustion-fueled Twitter stream at https://twitter.com/NoahFranc) to get good and angry at how totally off all my predictions will inevitably be.  Until then! 

-Noah Franc